Welcome to The Gray Rhino Wrangler!

This newsletter is about gray rhino risks --obvious, probable dangers and opportunities-- and what it takes to be among the humans who pay attention and act instead of freezing or ignoring them.

A gray rhino is an obvious, probable challenge, like a giant two-ton beast with its horn pointed your way, snorting and pawing the ground and getting ready to charge. We humans ignore gray rhinos at our peril, yet only some of us pay attention and respond effectively.

This newsletter focuses on these gray rhino risks and what it takes to be among the humans who pay attention and deal with the obvious dangers in front of us instead of looking away and getting trampled.

I coined the term “gray rhino” in 2012 and launched it at Davos in 2013 as a way to draw attention to the obvious challenges that urgently needed a fresh look and to challenge decision makers to do better in their responses. My third book, THE GRAY RHINO, came out in the United States in 2016, followed by a TED Talk in 2019 and a sequel, YOU ARE WHAT YOU RISK, in 2021.

Why the name Gray Rhino Wrangler?

First, risk management isn’t only about identifying risks –no matter how much people seem to think so. All too often, businesses and policy makers make lists of risks to say they made the list. And then they forget about it.

Smart risk management is about responding effectively to both dangers and opportunities –and even better, turning dangers into opportunities. Not just facing risks but taking risks. In other words, wrangling the giant beasts about to charge right at us.

Second, I can’t stand it when people talk about “hunting” or “killing” or “slaying” gray rhinos. In real life, rhinos already are endangered enough without having more people focused on reducing the population! Plus, now speaking in the metaphorical sense, I want to emphasize that gray rhino risks offer opportunities as well as threats. We definitely do not want to kill those opportunities.

Be a Gray Rhino Wrangler, not a poacher or slayer!

Gray rhinos differ depending on your angle of approach. Most of the insights here will be from a global macro perspective so will affect each reader differently, but I will write keeping in mind trends that are relevant to economic policy and business strategy: in particular, climate, financial fragilities, geopolitical tensions, and technological advances.

It will be up to you and to the community I want to build here to drill down deeper into how the second- and third-order effects might impact your investment or business strategy, or your policy choices.

I’ve added a few sample posts from LinkedIn and my website to give early viewers an idea of what this newsletter will be about.

Who Am I?

Working at the nexus of risk, global public policy, business strategy, and behavioral economics, I draw on decades of experience as a sovereign credit and financial crisis analyst, think tank CEO, and best-selling author with a global footprint.

I’ve been called an economist, strategist, political scientist, historian, futurist, sociologist, anthropologist, and even psychologist. I’ve had training and experience in all of these, but to describe me as any single one would do a disservice to anyone who has dedicated their career to any of those. It also would fail to recognize the value of a dynamic systems perspective that combines the best of each of these disciplines. The best catch-all phrases would be strategic advisor, global policy analyst, or even just author.

But as long as you spell my name right (with one L not two) and do not describe me a journalist (that has not been on my card for more than three decades), you can call me what makes the most sense to you.

Subscriber Benefits

Through the end of 2024, all posts will be free to all subscribers under a Guardian-style tipping model. From each according to their ability….

·      Subscribers will get emails with full access to public posts and previews of subscriber-only posts.

·      Subscribers will have the ability to respond and comment on posts.

·      Subscribers also will get access to monthly calls with invited guests from my amazing network of gray rhino wranglers. We’ll discuss gray rhinos in the news: implications for the future, possible responses, likely responses, and more.

Reach out to me directly about group, student, or institutional subscriber access.

I’ll be building this plane as I fly it, so feel free to reach out with any comments, questions, or requests for topics or new features.

I’m delighted that you’re here. Now let’s get down to business.

Image by Nexusplexus via Dreamstime